FARM OPERATORS SUCCESSION IN WEST-GERMANY

Structural change in agriculture resulting from the simultaneous occur rence of farm closures and farm growing is an important requirement fo r farmers' participation in the society's increasing welfare. Despite this fact, there are concerns that a lack of successors may threaten a n area-covering agricultural land use in West Germany. This paper ther efore intends to analyse whether these concerns are justified. In gene ral the findings of empirical investigations indicate that the reasons for farm take-over have not changed very much in the last years. Larg er hull-time farms will more often be taken over and carried on than p art-time or small full-time farms. The succession of older farmers, of farmers who have got a formal agricultural training and of farmers wh o are satisfied with their own occupational choice seems more frequent ly secured than that of other farmers. The proportion of farms which w ill likely be carried on beyond the change of generation is smaller in the middle (Hessen, Rheinland-Pfalz and Saarland) than in the north ( Schleswig-Holstein, Niedersachsen and Nordrhein-Westfalen) and in the south of West Germany (Baden-Wurttemberg and Bayern) and the probabili ty of succession of full-time farmers is c.p. higher in the South than in the North. Farmers' descendants who finished formal agricultural t raining often several years ago normally will not change their occupat ional choice due to the CAP- reform. Nevertheless, a certain degree of declining willingness to take over farms in order to continue their m anagement as full-time farms is to be observed. Due to a smaller propo rtion of farmers who are more than 45 years old this declining willing ness to continue farming must not inevitably lead to an increasing spe ed of structural change in agriculture. Projections based on the lates t surveys on intended farm take-over resulted in annual rates of decre ase between 2.6 and 2.9 per cent in the period 1991 to 2011 which is a bout the same as in projections based on surveys on farm take-over in 1987 but less than the rates of 3 to 3.8 per cent resulting from proje ctions which were based on demographic analyses. Even if farmers' desc endants willingness to take over farms continues to decline, concerns about too few successors seem to be unfounded. It rather seems admissi ble to assume that it will become increasingly possible for persons fr om outside agriculture to take over existing farms or to establish new ones if agriculture gains competitiveness through an accelerated stru ctural change.