INFORMATION-SEEKING ON BAYESIAN CONDITIONAL-PROBABILITY PROBLEMS - A FUZZY-TRACE THEORY ACCOUNT

Recently, the 'heuristics and biases' approach to the study of decisio n making has been criticized, with a call for better integrated theory . Three experiments stemming from fuzzy-trace theory addressed informa tion seeking on probability problems, and the cognitive representation of hit-rates, base-rates, and the contrapositive. As predicted by the fuzzy-trace principle of 'denominator neglect', many subjects exhibit ed 'conversion errors', confusing the hit-rate, P(A\B), with the answe r, P(B\A). These subjects sought base-rates less often than other subj ects. On causal problems, more subjects correctly represented base-rat es, sought base-rates more often, and produced more accurate estimates than on non-causal problems. Subjects tutored on the meaning of the h it-rate sought the base-rate more often, and were more accurate than c ontrol subjects. Results are explained by fuzzy-trace theory principle s of gist extraction, fuzzy processing preference, denominator neglect , and output interference.