NEGATIVE AFFECT AND HINDSIGHT BIAS

The relationship between hindsight bias and individual differences in negative affect, or 'dysphoria', was investigated in a naturalistic st udy. In a first session, 76 undergraduates predicted their grades prio r to a midterm exam. In a second session, after having received feedba ck from the exam, they attempted to recall their predictions and predi cted their grades on a second exam. Dysphoria was associated with hind sight bias whether initial predictions were overly optimistic or pessi mistic. In the former case, the standard hindsight bias was modal for the sample, whereas a 'reverse hindsight' bias was modal in the latter . This asymmetry suggests that hindsight bias is influenced by motivat ional or affective factors. The bias did not hinder the improvement of predictions between the first and second exams, and therefore could n ot have mediated a hypothesized adaptive learning impairment among dys phoric subjects.