ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE-OPTIONS FOR LAND-USE IN THE EUROPEAN-COMMUNITY

In the case of agricultural production, technical limitations can be u sed to explore future options for land use. As opposed to common econo mic outlooks this type of exploration provides information on the cave ats and possibilities for agriculture. The options are calculated by c ombining a land evaluation (using a Geographical Information System, G IS), crop growth simulation models and Interactive Multiple Goal Linea r Programming (IMGP). In the land evaluation, geographical information on soil types and other characteristics like steepness, stoniness, ph ase etc. is used to assess the suitability for different types of agri culture. Information on climate conditions and crop properties is used in the crop growth simulation models to calculate yield potentials fo r the suited areas. Economic, social and political goals are dealt wit h in a linear programming model. The result of this hierarchical model ling is a series of scenarios of optimal land use given the local prop erties of soils, crops and climate and given the economic, social and political considerations on topics like production costs, spreading of labor, market strategies and environmental conditions. Four different scenarios for future land use in the European Community emerge if the ongoing rise in productivity in agriculture is confronted with four p artially conflicting goals of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Th e scenarios present a picture of the end results in land use if one of these goals is taken to its logical conclusion. The goals are minimiz ing production costs (scenario Free market and free trade), maintainin g regional employment (scenario Regional development), minimizing agri cultural land use in favor of nature conservation (scenario Nature and landscape) and minimizing the stress on the environment due to pestic ides and nutrients (scenario Environmental protection). All scenarios show results that are in sharp contrast with current opinions on the m ost probable developments in rural areas. In this paper the methodolog y will be exemplified and the results for possible land use in the EC will be discussed. Special attention is given to the interpretation of the results of this type of exploration.