PREDICTING FUTURE LONG-TERM-CARE NEEDS IN A COMMUNITY

Under current financial restraints, planning for the future long-term- care needs of older Canadians is coming under increasing scrutiny. Eve n though health care is moving to a community-based system (i.e., dein stitutionalization), this is not necessarily the most cost-effective s trategy for severely disabled older adults. Three models are used in t he present paper to estimate the number of severely disabled (two or m ore ADL disabilities) older adults expected in the next 5 to 10 years in a small community in Northern Ontario. While mortality and disabili ty rates are the main predictors, it was also necessary to consider ad ditional factors particular to the community in question. It is sugges ted that for long-term-care planning to be effective and economically sound, similar strategies will be needed throughout Canada.