ECONOMIC VOTING AND THE WELFARE-STATE - A CROSS-NATIONAL ANALYSIS

We examine the question of economic voting in the major industrial dem ocracies. Using pooled time series data for 17 nations from 1960 to 19 87, we argue that the magnitude and nature of the relationship between economic conditions and the vote depends upon the level of welfare st ate development. We find that (a) in countries with low to moderate le vels of welfare spending, the economy has a more dramatic effect on th e vote when things are good than when things are bad, and (b) the econ omy plays less of a role in states with high levels of spending, regar dless of the direction of economic change. The implications for voting behavior, democratic accountability, and welfare policy are discussed .