THE INITIATION AND TERMINATION OF ENDURING RIVALRIES - THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL SHOCKS

Theory: Breaking the stability of interstate conflictual relationships requires a dramatic change in the environment of those relationships. Hypotheses: The beginning and end of enduring rivalries are closely r elated to the timing of large political shocks in the form of world wa rs, territorial changes, alterations in the international power distri bution, civil wars, and national independences. Methods: Descriptive s tatistics on timing of enduring rivalry-initiation and termination vis -a-vis political shocks, supplemented by event history analysis. Resul ts: Political shocks were found to be a modest necessary condition for the initiation and termination of enduring rivalries with the stronge st impact from world wars, civil wars, and national independences.