A SIMULATION-MODEL OF PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION CHOICE

Theory: Voters in a primary or caucus are unlikely to invest substanti al personal resources in making their choice, but at the same time the ir choice-problem is complex. A mixed model of choice is presented wit h two steps: an elimination step that reduces the field of candidates considered seriously by the voter, and an expected-utility step that i nvolves comparisons of the candidates in the reduced ''decision set.'' Hypotheses: Voters use party affiliation, visibility, and viability t o narrow the field of candidates. They then compare the expected-utili ty gains of electing any of the remaining candidates. If no clear pref erence emerges, voters consider their affect for the candidates and re consider viability. Methods: We have written a computer algorithm to s imulate the decision model for potential caucus and primary voters ear ly in the 1988 nomination campaign. A significant strength of this sim ulation technique is that it allows us to model choice across all 7 De mocratic and 6 Republican candidates. Results: The elimination step ha s a powerful effect in narrowing the field of candidates for nominatio n participants. Overall, the model accurately predicts choice across t he options voters faced early in the 1988 nomination season.