AN EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF A RECORD OF EL-NINO EVENTS, 1800-1987

This article describes an exploratory analysis of a record of major El Nino events covering the period 1800-1987. This record contains both the years during which the events occurred and a binary indication of their magnitude. The record is modeled as a marked point process in wh ich the times of the events follow a renewal process and the sequence of binary marks follows a stationary first-order Markov chain.