Objective: To determine the independent ability of initial hCG titers,
trend of hCG titers, and ultrasonographic findings in the prediction
of successful expectant management in ectopic pregnancy (EP). Design:
Case-control study. Setting: University hospital. Patients: Sixty-seve
n patients with EP managed expectantly, 49 of whom (73%) had a spontan
eous resolution, whereas 3 (5%) underwent medical treatment, and 15 (2
2%) eventually underwent surgical treatment. Results: Univariate analy
sis showed that the initial hCG titer, the trend in hCG titers between
first and second sample, and ultrasonographic visualization of absenc
e of an ectopic gestational sac were significant predictors of a succe
ssful expectant management. Using receiver operating characteristic cu
rve analysis, an hCG titer < 1,000 mIU/mL was chosen as the optimal cu
toff for this prediction, identifying 88% of women destined to have sp
ontaneous resolution of the EP. Multivariate analysis showed that both
initial hCG titer and trend in hCG titers but not ultrasonographic vi
sualization of an ectopic gestational sac were independent predictors
of a successful or failed expectant management. Conclusion: Expectant
management of EP is successful in the majority of patients with initia
l hCG titer < 1,000 mIU/mL.