IMPACT OF EXPECTED CLIMATE-CHANGE ON MANGROVES

There is a consensus of scientific opinion that the activities of man will cause a significant change in the global climate over the next hu ndred years. The rising level of carbon dioxide and other industrial g ases in the atmosphere may lead to global warming with an accompanying rise in sea-level. Mangrove ecosystems grow in the intertidal zones i n tropical and sub-tropical regions and are likely to be early indicat ors of the effects of climate change. The best estimates of predicted climate change in the literature are presented. It is suggested that a rise in mean sea-level may be the most important factor influencing t he future distribution of mangroves but that the effect will vary dram atically depending on the local rate of sea-level rise and the availab ility of sediment to support reestablishment of the mangroves. The pre dicted rise in mean air temperature will probably be of little consequ ence to the development of mangroves in general but it may mean that t he presence of mangroves will move further north and south, though thi s will depend on a number of additional factors. The effect of enhance d atmospheric CO2 on the growth of mangroves is unknown at this time b ut that there is some evidence that not all species of mangroves will respond similarly. The socio-economic impacts of the effects of climat e change on mangrove ecosystems may include increased risk of flooding , increased erosion of coast lines, saline intrusion and increased sto rm surges.