PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF ECHOCARDIOGRAPHY COMPARED TO OTHER CLINICAL FINDINGS - MULTIVARIATE-ANALYSIS BASED ON LONG-TERM SURVIVAL IN 456 PATIENTS

The prognostic significance of conventional clinical and echocardiogra phic data in patients referred to echocardiography was retrospectively analyzed. 456 patients (206 females and 250 males) were studied in th e department of cardiology in a district hospital. Survival after 3 ye ars was 64%. By multivariate analysis five factors contained independe nt, significant, prognostic information (hazard ratios for death are g iven in parentheses): left ventricular wall motion score index (WMI) l ess than or equal to 1.2 by echocardiography (2.5), status as inpatien t (2.1), age > 65 years (1.7), clinical heart failure (1.9) and atrial fibrillation (1.5). A stepwise multivariate analysis was performed by entering variables into a model initially forced to contain informati on on age, hospitalization status, treatment of heart failure and hear t rhythm. In this analysis, a poor WMI (less than or equal to 1.2) and a dilated right ventricle contained further independent prognostic in formation. In conclusion, among conventional clinical and echocardiogr aphic data, WMI was the most powerful predictor of long-term survival, and despite knowledge of major clinical features echocardiography pro vided further prognostic information.