A CLUSTER-ANALYSIS OF DETECTED AND SUBSTANTIATED CHILD MALTREATMENT INCIDENTS IN RURAL COLORADO

This paper reports the results of a cluster analysis of the incidents of detected and substantiated child maltreatment in 31 rural Colorado counties during the 5-year period (1986-1990). Mapping and statistical techniques employed revealed time-space clustering in the occurrence of child abuse and neglect in sparsely settled rural areas of the stat e. The study examined temporal-geographic patterns among all 830 confi rmed incidents in the Colorado Child Abuse and Neglect Registry for co unties of less than 10,000 population. These findings suggest that a f irst incident of abuse or neglect serves as a sentinel event, predicti ng a period of more frequent receipt and substantiation of maltreatmen t cases by child protection professionals in the county or community o f occurrence. Clustering was apparent using 3-, 7-, 14-, 30-, and 60-d ay intervals of time; a scheme endorsed by the Centers for Disease Con trol for national study of the epidemicity of adolescent suicide. An a genda is proposed to review the appropriateness and adequacy of child protection policies and protocols in view of this phenomenon, and to p ursue additional related research objectives.