Six-year changes in immediate visual memory performance assessed by th
e Benton Visual Retention (BVR) test predicted Alzheimer's disease (AD
) prior to its onset. Subjects of this study were 371 community-dwelli
ng adult participants in the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, se
ven of whom received probable or definite AD diagnoses using DSM-III-R
and NINCDS-ADRDA criteria. Subjects with diagnoses of AD had larger c
hanges in immediate memory performance over the 6-year interval prior
to the estimated onset of their disease than subjects without AD. Six-
year longitudinal change as well as level in immediate visual memory p
erformance also predicted subsequent cognitive performance 6-15 and 16
-22 years later even after adjusting for the influences of age general
-ability and initial immediate memory. These results provide evidence
that change and level in immediate visual memory performance has long-
term prognostic significance over as many as 16-22 years. These result
s further suggest that change in recent memory performance, an importa
nt component in AD diagnoses, may be an important precursor of the dev
elopment of the disease.