DYNAMIC-MODEL COMPARING THE BIONOMICS OF 2 ISOLATED CULEX-TARSALIS (DIPTERA, CULICIDAE) POPULATIONS - MODEL DEVELOPMENT

The population dynamics of Culex tarsalis in the Coachella and souther n San Joaquin valleys of California were studied using Monte Carlo sim ulations. Multiple years of abundance data were averaged to extract a generalized seasonal pattern for each site. These patterns were used t o establish qualitative goodness-of-fit criteria to assess model outpu t and to evaluate the importance of model parameters in simulating mos quito population trends. The parameters associated with the degree of temperature and density dependency on larval mortality were found to b e important components in determining whether or not the output was cl assified as having passed or failed on the basis of our criteria, wher eas autogeny and the heterogeneity of developmental time were found no t to be important.