ULTRASOUND VELOCITY THROUGH BONE PREDICTS INCIDENT VERTEBRAL DEFORMITY

We followed 130 postmenopausal women without evidence of vertebral def ormity by lateral spine radiographs on entry into study for 2 years, a nd repeat spine radiographs were taken at the end of that time, Incide nt deformities occurring within this 2 year period were detected by tw o methods, a level-specific radiogrammetric approach and visual inspec tion by skilled clinicians, Fourteen incident deformities were detecte d by the radiogrammetric method, and 19 by the clinicians, Ultrasound transmission velocity was measured at the patella in each subject on e ntry. Values for ultrasound velocity were significantly correlated wit h incident fracture occurrence, with individuals having velocity value s more than one standard deviation below the mean for the group exhibi ting hom 3.3 to 4.6 times the probability of incident fracture as indi viduals with velocity values more than one standard deviation above th e mean, Thus, low values for ultrasound transmission velocity at the p atella detect yet-unexpressed bony fragility at the spine and predict future fracture.