THE REITERATION EFFECT IN HINDSIGHT BIAS

Repetition of an assertion increases the degree of belief in that asse rtion. This reiteration effect is used to explain two puzzling finding s in research on hindsight bias. First, the reiteration effect explain s the asymmetry in hindsight bias for true and false assertions. This striking asymmetry has often been observed in experimental studies, bu t no rationale has yet been found. Second, the reiteration effect pred icts a novel finding: Recalled confidence will increase in hindsight b ias studies even if no feedback is given. The authors have checked bot h predictions against results reported in the literature; with some ex ceptions, the evidence supports them.