REGIONAL PREDICTION OF THE WESTERN ROCK LOBSTER, PANULIRUS-CYGNUS, COMMERCIAL CATCH IN WESTERN-AUSTRALIA

The puerulus settlement at 2 sites on the Western Australian coast has proved to be a reliable predictor of total catch of the western rock lobster fishery, up to 4 years ahead. Over the last 10 years the pueru lus settlement has been monitored over a wider area of the fishery ena bling regional variation in puerulus settlement to be assessed and all owing regional prediction of catches. Analysis of the three main regio ns of the fishery (Abrolhos Is., North and South Coastal) indicate tha t settlement within these regions provides a more accurate predictor o f regional catches. This was illustrated in 1991/92, when a higher tha n expected catch was obtained in the Southern region due to record pue rulus settlement at the southern sires in 1988/89. Only average settle ment was obtained at the more northern sites, Dongara and Jurien, for 1988/89 and so an average catch was predicted For 1991/92. The regiona l analyses have also highlighted the significant effect that the incre ase in fishing effort in the North Coastal region has had in explainin g the variation in the catch, after taking into account the effect of the puerulus settlement. The variation between regions in density-depe ndent effects between puerulus and recruitment to the fishery is exami ned.