S. Asgarpoor et Sk. Panarelli, EXPECTED COST PENALTY DUE TO DEVIATION FROM ECONOMIC-DISPATCH FOR INTERCONNECTED POWER-SYSTEMS, IEEE transactions on power systems, 10(1), 1995, pp. 441-447
This paper introduces and evaluates a new index called ''Expected Cost
Penalty due to Deviation from the Economic Dispatch'' (EPDED) for int
erconnected power systems. This index represents the cost penalties as
sociated with uncertainties such as random failure of generating units
, load growth, and fuel costs in interconnected power systems. The sig
nificance of this index is that it represents common events such as op
erating problems that can be observed over short periods (e.g., one or
two years) rather than the rare events such as load curtailment which
is currently used for reliability evaluation of power systems. This p
aper presents two techniques to evaluate this index. Monte-Carlo simul
ation and a tree structured state enumeration. System studies are perf
ormed to determine the variation of expected cost penalty with respect
to changes in load values and probability of failure of generating un
its.