DEMOCRATIC-POLITICS AND INTERNATIONAL-TRADE NEGOTIATIONS - ELECTIONS AND DIVIDED GOVERNMENT AS CONSTRAINTS ON TRADE LIBERALIZATION

Elections affect both the probability of successful ratification and t he terms of international trade agreements; domestic politics in its s implest form shapes international negotiations. Without elections, the extent of protection in a trade agreement increases with the degree o f divided government, and the Schelling conjecture-whereby an internat ional negotiator can point to a hawkish legislature to extract greater concessions from the foreign country-holds only when the legislature is not too hawkish. An election (where the executive anticipates the p references of the legislature imperfectly) implies that when divisions in government rise, the probability of ratification failure increases , the expected outcome becomes more protectionist, and the executive's influence vis-a-vis the foreign country declines, thus challenging th e Schelling conjecture.