ESTIMATING SOCIAL-WELFARE USING COUNT DATA MODELS - AN APPLICATION TOLONG-RUN RECREATION DEMAND UNDER CONDITIONS OF ENDOGENOUS STRATIFICATION AND TRUNCATION

This paper develops a negative binomial model of recreation demand tha t corrects for both truncation and endogenous stratification. This app roach recovers the demand associated with the general population, not just the users of the site. This model demonstrates the importance of the joint nature of the population's latent demand for trips and the c onsumer surplus associated with those trips. The empirical results pro vide an estimate of the willingness-to-pay by Washington state residen ts for hiking opportunities in the Cascade Mountain Range. These resul ts are used to forecast total trips and willingness-to-pay over the ne xt forty years.