AN ALGORITHM FOR FORECASTING MOUNTAIN WAVE-RELATED TURBULENCE IN THE STRATOSPHERE

A global mountain wave parameterization for prediction of wave-related displacements and turbulence is described. The parameterization is us ed with input from National Meteorological Center analyses of wind and temperature to examine small-scale disturbances encountered by the Na tional Aeronautics and Space Administration high-altitude ER-2 during the Second Airborne Arctic Stratosphere Experiment. The magnitude and location of observed large wave events are well reproduced. A strong c orrelation is suggested between patches of moderate turbulence encount ered by the ER-2 and locations where breaking mountain waves are predi cted by the parameterization. These facts suggest that useful forecast s of global mountain wave activity, including wave-related clear-air t urbulence, can be made quickly and inexpensively using our mountain wa ve parameterization with input from current numerical forecast models.