ON THE WEIGHTS FOR AN ENSEMBLE-AVERAGED 6-LO-DAY FORECAST

Authors
VANDENDOOL HM RUKHOVETS L
Citation
Hm. Vandendool et L. Rukhovets, ON THE WEIGHTS FOR AN ENSEMBLE-AVERAGED 6-LO-DAY FORECAST, Weather and forecasting, 9(3), 1994, pp. 457-465
Citations number
NO
Categorie Soggetti
Metereology & Atmospheric Sciences
Journal title
Weather and forecasting → ACNP
ISSN journal
08828156
Volume
9
Issue
3
Year of publication
1994
Pages
457 - 465
Database
ISI
SICI code
0882-8156(1994)9:3<457:OTWFAE>2.0.ZU;2-B
Abstract
A scheme to optimally weight the members of an ensemble of forecasts i s discussed in the framework of calculating an as accurate as possible ensemble average. Results show, relative to a single member, a consid erably improved 500-mb height forecast in the 6-10-day range for the N orthern Hemisphere. The improvement is nontrivial and cannot be explai ned from simple smoothing. This method is used in operations at the Na tional Meteorological Center.