BUILDING NORTHEAST ASIAN MARITIME REGIMES - WILL JAPAN TAKE THE LEAD

There are several factors favouring a prominent role for Japan in a fu ture North-east Asian martitime regime for fisheries and the environme nt: its economic and technological dominance, its knowledge and experi ence, its web of bilateral agreements with neighbouring countries, and its lack of the political dichotomies which hamper China and Korea. L eadership of such a regime might benefit Japan by delaying the impleme ntation of EEZs by China and South Korea and the escalation of boundar y disputes which would inevitably result. Benefits would also include conservation of fisheries resources, protection of the environment, el imination of the transaction costs and frustration entailed in annual bilateral fishing quota negotiations, and enhancement of Japan's statu s in the region. However, for the foreseeable future, there are strong factors mitigating against Japan assuming a leadership role. Internat ionally, the Kurile Islands dispute, the memories of Japan's expansion ist wars, and Japan's propensity for placing economic gain above all e lse constrain its regional leadership possibilities. Bureaucratic iner tia, resulting from the need for consensus among Japan's many domestic political entities forces Japan into a reactive rather than proactive role when maintenance of the status quo becomes no longer tenable. Ne vertheless, the rapidly increasing density of unilateral, bilateral an d multilateral pronouncements and agreements involving Japan show a di stinct trend towards a nation which is becoming more comfortable with a larger role in the region.