A short review is presented of progress in climate change scenario dev
elopment. Sources of uncertainty are discussed. Critical assessment of
climate models for their veracity in describing the present climate i
s considered essential. Methods of deriving sub-continental scale patt
erns of climate change, per degree of global warming, include the use
of finer resolution global models, nested modelling, and spatial inter
polation. Transient effects and the importance of extreme events are a
lso discussed.