THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COERCION AND PROTEST - AN EMPIRICAL-EVALUATION IN 3 COERCIVE STATES

The relationship between coercion and protest, arguably the core of an y theory of rebellion, remains unresolved. Competing hypotheses have e merged from formal models and empirical research. This article uses tw o forms of the predator-prey model to test these competing hypotheses. Time-series data from three coercive states (the German Democratic Re public, Czechoslovakia, and the Palestinian Intifada) are used to esti mate parameters for both models. Results show stable, damped relations hips in all three cases. The ''inverted U'' hypothesis receives less s upport than its ''backlash'' alternative, that is, that dissidents rea ct strongly to extremely harsh coercion. Moreover, the study indicates that protesters adapt to coercion by changing tactics.