PREDICTING ADOLESCENT DRINKING FROM ALCOHOL EXPECTANCY VALUES - A COMPARISON OF ADDITIVE, INTERACTIVE, AND NONLINEAR MODELS

Additive, interactive, and nonlinear models of alcohol expectancy valu es were compared using survey data from 1,758 high school students. Ex pectancies and values independently predicted drinking in the additive model. Expectancies were more important as predictors than were value s, and negative expectancies were more important than positive expecta ncies. Significant expectancy-value interactions also were found. Drin king was highest when positive consequences were believed to be likely and desirable and was lowest when negative consequences were believed to be likely and undesirable. Significant nonlinearities indicated th at beliefs about negative consequences had greater effects at lower le vels of likelihood and evaluation whereas beliefs about positive conse quences had greater effects at higher levels of likelihood and evaluat ion. However, the interactive and nonlinear effects were small.