THE MECCA ANALYSIS PROJECT

The Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment (MECCA) aims to : quantify the probable range of future climate change, provide policy makers with information and identify key topics for research. A prima ry focus of the second phase of MECCA and of the MECCA analysis team i s to increase understanding of the uncertainties associated with numer ical climate model predictions and to evaluate the propagation of unce rtainties derived from predictions of greenhouse-induced climate chang e through impacts models into policy development. It is possible to id entify uncertainty issues which could benefit from additional research and also sensitive points in the policy development process at which uncertainty can be used and abused. Preliminary evaluation of the resp onses to a survey of project members participating in MECCA Phase 1 re veals, in some cases, experimental designs developed without a full re cognition of the needs of impact assessors and policy developers. Incr eased understanding and more informed debate of all aspects of the unc ertainties relating greenhouse-induced climatic change to policy devel opment and implementation will be encouraged in MECCA Phase 2. MECCA a nd the Analysis Plan Project are aimed at delivering improved understa nding of the uncertainties associated with greenhouse-related climatic change.