ESTIMATION OF THE SIZE OF THE HIV AIDS EPIDEMIC DUE TO BLOOD-TRANSFUSION IN FRANCE/

Background. This study presents estimates of the number of individuals contaminated by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) via a blood transf usion received in France before the end of 1991 and those who have dev eloped or will develop AIDS. Methods. The computer simulation model ta kes into account several possible hypotheses concerning the annual num ber of infected blood donations collected before the introduction of H IV screening in August 1985, those collected between August 1985 and D ecember 1991 not excluded by the testing procedure due to the seroconv ersion period, the number of labile blood components elaborated from o ne donation, the 5-year mortality rate of blood recipients, and the in cubation delay. Results. Results reproducing the evolution of the repo rted annual number of transfusion-associated AIDS cases were selected which enabled the estimation of the number of recipients infected (bet ween 3300 and 4300) and of the number of transfusion-associated AIDS c ases (between 1600 and 1800) compared with 1300 transfusion-associated AIDS cases reported by June 1993. Conclusion. This methodology could be used for other countries provided information required by the model is available.