THE ROAD TO DESERT-STORM

Analysis of escalation of commitment is used to highlight the differen ces between two paradigms in the study of decision making. The rationa l paradigm proposes that escalation is a dysfunctional response to fai lure (Staw and Ross 1987). A single-option paradigm, developed in this paper, proposes that it is a necessary response to uncertainty which may, but not necessarily, result in failure. Analysis of the decision- making process of President Bush prior to Operation Desert Storm highl ights the differences between the two paradigms and demonstrates how t hey provide different interpretations and evaluations of a given decis ion process.