MEDIA COVERAGE OF THE ECONOMY AND AGGREGATE ECONOMIC EVALUATIONS - UNCOVERING EVIDENCE OF INDIRECT MEDIA EFFECTS

In the following analysis, we investigate two important questions: (1) how closely does media coverage of the economy reflect real changes i n economic conditions? and (2) to what extent does economic coverage o f the economy exert an independent effect on economic evaluations? We then use this information to explore Republican claims that media cove rage of the economy hurt the Bush. reelection campaign. Consistent wit h previous research, we find that, overall, the media tend to follow n egative economic conditions more closely than positive economic condit ions. in addition, news coverage appears to be strongly related to agg regate public evaluations of the economy, even after controlling for r eal economic conditions. Finally, we also find that news coverage of t he economy was significantly different during 1982, 1991, and 1992 tha n during other years under study. During these years, coverage of the economy was more negative than would have been expected on the basis o f economic conditions alone The implications of these findings, partic ularly with respect to Republican claims of media bias, are explored.