HOW GOOD IS GOOD LUCK - THE ROLE OF COUNTERFACTUAL THINKING IN THE PERCEPTION OF LUCKY AND UNLUCKY EVENTS

Spontaneous references to 'luck' (e.g. in the mass media) frequently o ccur in connection with narrow escapes from accidents. The hypothesis that lucky events are not always positive, to the same degree as unluc ky events are negative, was tested by asking Norwegian and Polish stud ents to describe incidents of good and bad luck from their own lives. These stories were subsequently evaluated by the narrators and by a gr oup of judges. Ratings showed unlucky events to be uniformly negative whereas lucky events varied widely in attractiveness. Both were charac terized by the idea that the outcome could easily have been a dramatic ally different one. In a parallel set of studies, pleasant and unpleas ant experiences from students' everyday life were collected (without s pecific reference to luck) and evaluated along the same dimensions. Th e results confirm that unlucky and unpleasant events have move in comm on than lucky and pleasant ones. Pleasant and unpleasant events can be imagined to have opposite alternative outcomes, but these are felt wi th less immediacy than in the case of luck. It is concluded that luck attributions typically occur in situations that could easily have take n a worse turn. How lucky depends upon how easily and how much worse.