PRESIDENTIAL COATTAILS IN OPEN-SEAT ELECTIONS

This study examines the impact of presidential coattails in open-seat races for the U.S. House of Representatives. Although presidential coa ttails exert a strong influence on congressional vote margins, coattai ls may have determined whether a party won or lost an open seat in onl y 34 of 254 races between 1972 and 1992-about 13% of the time. Where c oattails are decisive, they seem to help Republicans (who frequently n eed the help) more than Democrats (who generally do not). parties must continue to increase the competitiveness of open-seat races before co attails will influence the outcome of a substantial number of contests .