M. Chebaane et al., PRODUCT PERIODIC AUTOREGRESSIVE PROCESSES FOR MODELING INTERMITTENT MONTHLY STREAMFLOWS, Water resources research, 31(6), 1995, pp. 1513-1518
Several attempts have been made in the past to model hydrological proc
esses such as monthly streamflows in dry regions. One of the crucial p
roblems in modeling this type of process is the handling of zero flows
. A stochastic model is presented herein which enables the reproductio
n of the percentage of zero flows in each month, the monthly mean and
variance, and the month-to-month correlation of the intermittent flows
. The model considers the intermittent monthly flow process as a produ
ct of a periodic binary discrete process and a periodic continuous pro
cess. Both the discrete and the continuous processes are periodic firs
t-order autoregressive. Parameter estimation has been developed based
on the method of moments, method of transition probability, and method
of maximum likelihood.