USES AND APPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE FORECASTS FOR POWER UTILITIES

The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving clim ate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-depth structured interviews were c onducted with 56 decision makers in six utilities to assess existing a nd potential uses of climate forecasts. Only 3 of the 56 use forecasts . Eighty percent of those sampled envisioned applications of climate f orecasts, given certain changes and additional information. Primary ap plications exist in power trading, load forecasting, fuel acquisition, and systems planning, with slight differences in interests between ut ilities. Utility staff understand probability-based forecasts but desi re climatological information related to forecasted outcomes, includin g analogs similar to the forecasts, and explanations of the forecasts. Desired lead times vary from a week to three months, along with forec asts of up to four seasons ahead. The new NOAA forecasts initiated in 1995 provide the lead times and longer-term forecasts desired. Major h indrances to use of forecasts are hard-to-understand formats, lack of corporate acceptance, and lack of access to expertise. Recent changes in government regulations altered the utility industry, leading to a m ore competitive world wherein information about future weather conditi ons assumes much more value. Outreach efforts by government forecast a gencies appear valuable to help achieve the appropriate and enhanced u se of climate forecasts by the utility industry. An opportunity for se rvice exists also for the private weather sector.