PREDICTING LONG-TERM OUTCOME OF CHILDHOOD EPILEPSY IN NOVA-SCOTIA, CANADA, AND TURKU, FINLAND - VALIDATION OF A SIMPLE SCORING SYSTEM

Background: Based on a follow-up study of 486 children, a scoring syst em for the long-term outcome for childhood epilepsy has been developed in Nova Scotia, Canada. The scoring system consists of four weighted predictor variables available at the time of diagnosis (ie, age at ons et, intelligence, neonatal seizures, and number of seizures before tre atment). Objective: Validation of the scoring system using longterm fo llow-up data for childhood epilepsy from a regional cohort in Turku, F inland. Design: Patients were selected from the Turku cohort with the same entry criteria as the Nova Scotia cohort. The scoring system was used to predict their epilepsy outcome. Results: A total of 141 patien ts were selected from the Finland cohort. After 30 years of follow-up, 60% of the patients were in remission. The Nova Scotia scoring system correctly predicted outcome in 61% of Finnish cases (sensitivity, 43% ; specificity, 88%; and positive predictive value, 84%). Conclusions: Long-term good outcome for childhood epilepsy is well predicted by the Nova Scotia scoring system.