PROTOCOL MODELING, TEXTUAL ANALYSIS, THE BIFURCATION BOOTSTRAPPING METHOD, AND CONVINCE ME - COMPUTER-BASED TECHNIQUES FOR STUDYING BELIEFSAND THEIR REVISION

This paper traces a progression of four computer-based methods for stu dying and fostering both the structure and the on-line development of knowledge. Each empirical technique employs ECHO, a connectionist mode l that instantiates the theory of explanatory coherence (TEC). First, verbal protocols of subjects' reasonings were modeled post hoc. Next, ECHO predicted, a priori, subjects' text-based believability ratings. Later, the bifurcation/bootstrapping method was developed to elicit an d account for individuals' background knowledge, while assessing inter coder reliability regarding ECHO simulations. Finally, Convince Me, ou r ''reasoner's workbench,'' automated the explication both of subjects ' knowledge bases and of their belief assessments; the Convince Me sof tware permits contrasts between the model's predictions and subjects' proposition-wise evaluations. These experimental systems enhance our u nderstanding of the relationships among-and determinant features regar ding-hypotheses, evidence, and the arguments that incorporate them.