A LOW, NORMAL SCORE ON THE MINI-MENTAL-STATE-EXAMINATION PREDICTS DEVELOPMENT OF DEMENTIA AFTER 3 YEARS

OBJECTIVES: To study whether a low, ''normal'' sumscore (i.e., 24 or h igher) on the Mini-Mental Status Examination (MMSE) near the cutpoint usually employed for identifying persons with cognitive impairment pre dicts later development of dementia. DESIGN: A prospective study of a random sample of nondemented persons aged 75 years and older, accordin g to DSM-III criteria, with follow-ups after 3 and 6 years. PARTICIPAN TS: The subjects were 215 persons living at home, mean age 81 years, 8 1% women. Their mean MMSE sumscore at the start of the study (T-0) was 27.9 (range 24-30). MAIN RESULTS: A low MMSE sumscore at T-0 was iden tified as a statistically strongly significant predictor of dementia a fter 3 years (P < .001), when more than 40% of those with a sumscore o f 24 or 25 at T-0 had become demented. A similar, although weaker and statistically nonsignificant, trend was observed for the risk after 6 years in relation to MMSE scoring at baseline. CONCLUSION: Persons wit h a sumscore of 24 or 25 and classified as not suffering from dementia according to the DSM-III criteria are at high risk of developing deme ntia within 3 years.