A NEW FORECASTING-MODEL FOR AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES

This paper presents a mathematical model for forecasting the productio n of some agricultural commodities. This method takes into account the general trend of the time series and random fluctuations about this t rend. It has the merits of both simplicity of application and high for ecasting precision. In particular, the forecast values of the model ar e more precise than those of other models such as the index smoothing method and the grey dynamic model, for data sequences with large rando m fluctuations. The case study of the silkworm cocoon production in Zh ejiang province shows the merits of the model.