THE STOPPING AND SPACING OF CHILDBIRTHS AND THEIR BIRTH-HISTORY PREDICTORS - RATIONAL-CHOICE THEORY AND EVENT-HISTORY ANALYSIS

Using data on women from the 1985 Current Population Survey, we analyz e the distinct effects of covariates on birth stopping and birth spaci ng. We develop behavioral models of rational childbearing from which w e derive two sets of hypotheses: one for the effects on birth stopping of the sex composition of children born and its interaction with educ ation and cohort, and the other for the effects of maternal age at bir th and the length of the preceding birth interval on birth stopping an d birth spacing. To rest these hypotheses, we analyze second and third births using event-history models that combine a regression on the pr obability of not having another birth in the lifetime and a regression on spacing to the next birth. We predict and confirm that: (1) women with different-sex children are more likely to stop childbearing than women with same-sex children; (2) this sex composition effect of child ren born is larger for highly educated women than for those with lower education attainment and for women in younger cohorts than for those in older cohorts; (3) the sex composition of children born has no effe ct on birth spacing. We also find that the probability of birth stoppi ng increases as maternal age at previous birth increases, while the sp acing to the next birth first increases and then decreases as maternal age at previous birth increases.