UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE INCARCERATION OF PRETRIAL DEFENDANTS

Empirical evidence shows that unemployment influences levels of incarc eration. Theory attributes this relationship to the state's attempt to control labor surpluses. Studies testing the Rusche and Kirchheimer ( 1939) thesis yield questionable results, however, because they rely on convicted offender data. Using longitudinal data and a Box-Jenkins Au toregressive-lntegrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling method, we inv estigate the effect of unemployment rates on pretrial incarceration ra tes. We include controls for arrest rates, jail capacity, and three co urt processing variables. Although our preliminary bivariate analysis revealed that the aggregate unemployment rate was significantly and po sitively related to pretrial incarceration for misdemeanors, this corr elation became nonsignificant in the ARIMA analysis. The relationship between unemployment and the incarceration rate for pretrial felony de fendants was also nonsignificant. Taken in total, our results suggest that the Rusche and Kirchheimer thesis overstates the importance of un employment in explaining levels of incarceration.