THE POTENTIAL DANGER TO SPACE PLATFORMS FROM METEOR STORM ACTIVITY

The probabilities of impact of stream meteoroids on space platforms in low Earth orbit are calculated. It is found that at times of meteor s torm activity, the meteoroid impact probability increases by factors i n excess of 10(4) over that from the sporadic background of meteoroids . A review of the historic record suggests that since the second mille nnium AD, a lower bound to the meteor storm rate per century is one or two. The meteor storm rate during the last two centuries seems to hav e been anomalously high. It is not entirely clear if this anomaly is p urely an artifact of the incompleteness of the historical record. A re view of the presently active meteroid streams suggests that at least s ix streams may undergo storm or outburst activity in the next 6 years, the most likely stream being the Leonids. The impact shielding presen tly incorporated into space platform design may not be adequate under meteor storm conditions. Several Risk Curtailment Scenarios are open t o space platform operators. An analysis of space platform impact proba bilities from meteoroids within the Perseid stream suggests that the c ritical shielding concept outlined for the proposed Space Station will result, even under the most extreme of circumstances, in probabilitie s of no penetrative impacts above 99.98 per cent.