PREDICTIONS OF DROUGHT LENGTH EXTREME ORDER-STATISTICS USING RUN THEORY

A new model has been developed here, incorporating prospective run the ory to predict events based on order statistics. The difference equati ons for such a system are presented and the closed form solution is ob tained in terms of parameters to which the practising hydrologist has access. Predictions are provided for duration of maximum drought lengt hs as a function of the definition of drought, the number of years ove r which the prediction is made, and the probability of inadequate wate r resources.