MODELING DYNAMIC SUBSTITUTION PROCESSES IN ENERGY SUPPLY-SYSTEMS

Dynamic substitution processes between energy-conversion techniques ar e very important phenomena for the restructuring of energy systems. Us ing the method of synergetics, we develop a probabilistic model framew ork for individual decisions and their effects on the macroscopic conf iguration of energy supply systems. The derived probability transition rates are associated with socioeconomic parameters that are the basis for individual decisions. We state preliminary results of a case stud y for the room heating of private households in the former West German y, which are based on a small data sample and a nonrepresentative poll We find that the number of healing systems of one type which are alre ady installed, their ease of use, and the cost are the most important parameters for the selection of a new heating system. Using the estima ted parameters, we simulate the diffusion of a new type of heating sys tem, which is regarded as better than all the others, into the energy supply system. Tts market share will reach 11-18% after 35 years.