THE FUTURE OF ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk assessment has become a popular tool to help solve ecological pro blems. The basic concept is not new and has been applied to diverse de cision problems. The application to ecological problems, especially co mplex ecological problems, is fairly recent and controversial. The fun damental and most important elements of the controversy revolve around two key points: (1) a person's implicit ''worldview;'' and (2) the as sumption of who (or what) receives the benefits and who (or what) pays the costs for ecological ''decisions.'' A person's attitude toward ri sk assessment is, at least implicitly, defined by a worldview. It is t he worldview which defines how each of us react to risk assessment app lied to ecological problems. How the question of benefits and costs is defined also defines the appropriate use, if any, of ecological risk assessment. The future of ecological risk assessment will almost certa inly follow the course of other analytical tools-enthusiastic support, rapid, widespread adoption and use, then disillusionment and rapid re placement with newer approaches, hut with continued use for a greatly constrained set of ecological issues.