FACTORS AFFECTING THE PERSISTENCE OF NEW-ENGLAND COTTONTAIL METAPOPULATIONS - THE ROLE OF HABITAT MANAGEMENT

The distribution and abundance of New England cottontails (Sylvilagus transitionalis) have declined dramatically in response to land-use cha nges and expanding human populations. Remnant populations of cottontai ls are fragmented and likely to decline further unless conservation ag encies intervene. We used computer simulations in the context of metap opulation theory to understand the effects of environmental correlatio n, habitat loss, and habitat management on remaining populations of Ne w England cottontails. Environmental correlation (based on increased v ulnerability to predation during periods with snow) and habitat loss ( based largely on forest maturation) can each affect the persistence of cottontail metapopulations. The synergistic effect of these 2 paramet ers can cause a rapid decline in rabbit populations or local extinctio ns. However, these effects may be countered by a management program th at maintains a network of suitable habitats. Patches (15-75 ha) of ear ly successional habitat that are maintained with a regime of periodic disturbances (burning, cutting, or mowing) may be sufficient to sustai n local populations of New England cottontails. Current theory on spat ially structured populations and computer simulations are useful for d eveloping management guidelines for a species that is declining in hum an-altered landscapes.