MODELING THE ROLE OF VIRAL DISEASE IN RECURRENT PHYTOPLANKTON BLOOMS

The recurrent pattern of some phytoplankton species can vary considera bly from year to year. Recent experimental work suggests that the cont amination of algal cells by viruses can serve as a regulatory mechanis m in bloom dynamics. A simple trophic model is proposed that includes virus-induced mortality, and it mimics the actual bloom patterns of se veral species. The model results are compared to actual data by a comb ination of nonlinear forecasting techniques.