REFORMISM AND RADICALISM AMONG PEASANTS - AN EMPIRICAL-TEST OF PAIGESAGRARIAN REVOLUTION

This study tests a well-known and widely accepted theory of agrarian r evolution (Paige 1975) using data that precisely fit the categorizatio n scheme upon which Paige's model rests. In an effort to hold constant the influences of the state and to focus upon the structural variable s that Paige says are determinant, the study draws upon data on peasan t political attitudes and behaviors in a single country, Costa Rica. T he findings suggest serious limitations to the predictions derived fro m the theory. Although our tests sometimes show Paige's variables to b e statistically significant and his predictions to be correct, more of ten than not his predictions are in the wrong direction or not signifi cant at all. We explore other variables that aid in explaining the rel evant political attitudes and compare their predictive power to that o f Paige's structural variables. We conclude that the Paige model is un derspecified and that a more accurate model needs to account for these other variables as well as for the influence of the national state.