CAMPAIGNS, NATIONAL CONDITIONS, AND UNITED-STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

One unresolved debate in election studies concerns the relative import ance of political campaigns and the national political and economic cl imate in determining election outcomes. In this paper, a model of cand idate support that incorporates campaign variables and national condit ions is developed and tested using trial heat data from the 1984, 1988 , and 1992 presidential elections. The results of the analysis indicat e that, while both sets of variables have a significant impact on publ ic opinion, national conditions have a greater impact on determining e lection outcomes than do campaign events.