USING CROP MODELS AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION-SYSTEMS TO STUDY THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE-CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN USA

Agricultural production is vulnerable to variability in weather condit ions. Thus, projections of global climate change have prompted many st udies on its possible impacts on agriculture. The aim of [is research was to develop a system to facilitate studies of the effects of climat e change on crop production in the southeastern USA. The Agricultural and Environmental Geographic Information System (AEGIS V2.5) was devel oped by integrating field crop models for corn soybean, rice, wheat, p eanut, and dry beans used in previous national and international studi es on climate change with a Geographic Information System (GIS) on a p ersonal computer. These crop models include the effects of CO2 on grow th and yield and on crop water use. Soil and weather data are linked t o map units so that model inputs as well as simulated results can be d isplayed over two dimensional space. The system allows users to alter management practices such as planting date, irrigation and cultivars, to study the possibilities of mitigating harmfill effects by adapting new practices. Example results for Florida show that non-irrigated cro p yields will likely decrease and that irrigation demand would increas e considerably under climate change scenarios. Examples results for Fl orida are displayed on a map to demonstrate the system.